I agree, Chris, that this is meaningless in the sense that it will probably wind up not accomplishing whichever foreign policy goals that Trump, our local members of Congress, or military generals and venture capitalists like Dan Caine have in mind. Unfortunately, the so-called Blob probably does have some "meanings" in mind.
The explicit one is to degrade Iranian nuclear capacity (see p. 91 in ch. 5 of "Leave it to Bibi": https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/06_iran_strategy.pdf), but there may be others. For instance, it is well-known that the US wants to maintain hegemony in the region, which it has pursued in the past by fomenting dissident groups to weaken nationalistic agendas: we currently back a former leader of al-Qaeda in Syria, after overthrowing Assad, presumably because the Ba'athist regime was the only sovereign state, other than Iran, forming part of the so-called Axis of Resistance, which is often seen as resistance to the colonization of Palestine.
It is also well-known that we wish to maintain the petrodollar system, which is key to maintaining the dollar as global reserve currency. Iran is tied with Iraq and China as the fifth largest producer of oil on earth (the US is number one) and is the world's third largest producer of natural gas. Iran has also been pushing "de-dollarization," in part by selling more and more oil and gas in other currencies, notably the Chinese yuan or renminbi. China, which is the world's largest importer of oil and LNG (liquified natural gas), buys approximately 90% of Iran's oil and LNG through "teapots," which are small, independent refineries that are not officially state-owned but that allegedly pay for the oil and gas, shipped to them in a "dark fleet," in yuan, not in dollars. The US fears that other Persian Gulf countries will follow suit. The fear is well-founded as this is already happening: the United Arab Emirates has been selling LNG to China in yuan since May 2023 and Saudi Arabia has been in talks with China to do the same since 2022.
What is the petrodollar system? I'm no economist, but here's a stab. In August 1971 Richard Nixon ended the convertibility of the dollar to gold, before which the Bretton Woods system, in which the World Bank set the gold standard at $35/oz, prevailed. Since 1971, therefore, the dollar has been a freely floating fiat currency, which means that the value of the dollar in relation to other currencies is constantly fluctuating in the currency exchange market. In the 1970s, the US experienced a lot of inflation, and we were trying to find a way to stabilize the value of the dollar to bring down inflation. In 1973 an OPEC oil embargo caused oil prices to skyrocket and in 1974 inflation reached a record-breaking 11%. (The embargo, by the way, was a direct reaction against US support for Israel, which the OPEC countries saw as illegal occupation of Palestinian, Egyptian, and Syrian territory, and the leader of the embargo, King Faisal of Saudi Arabia, was assassinated for reasons that are still controversial.) Between 1973 and 1981 the price of oil increased fivefold.
Nixon and Kissinger sent Bill Simon to Saudi Arabia in order to neutralize this use of oil as an economic weapon. Simon, the Treasury Secretary and former Salomon Brothers investment bank bond trader, brokered a simple deal. The US would buy Saudi oil and provide military equipment in return for the Saudis putting billions of petrodollars back into US Treasuries to finance American spending. By eventually forcing the Persian Gulf oil monarchies to sell their oil in dollars, this in turn forced any country which wants to import oil (i.e. pretty much every country) to access dollars, thereby maintaining global demand for the dollar. This, along with Volcker's tightening of the Fed and a more aggressive monetary policy, was arguably a large factor in fixing the inflation crisis of the 1970s. From this point of view, at the heart of the privilege to print the global reserve currency is the petrodollar system.
There are also other goals we might have in attacking Iran, such as degrading, destroying, or collapsing Khomeini's regime, but maintaining hegemonic control over the region and protecting the petrodollar system (see all the talk about why the probably symbolic vote of the Iranian parliament to block the Straight of Hormuz is a major threat) are two possible goals.
Unfortunately, it is unclear to ordinary citizens like us what our government's goals really are. Tom Friedman at the NYT yesterday spoke of a "global struggle between the forces of inclusion and the forces of resistance." Pundits often write opinion pieces in such a way that morally justify at the time what on later reflection turn out to be immoral, or at least amoral, Thucydidean goals of realpolitik.
It's a shame that we live in an age of spectacle that makes it nigh impossible for ordinary citizens, who are good reasoners and have pretty accurate bullsh** detectors, to judge rationally the consequential decisions of their own governments. I bet that most Americans, given the full story, would be against the reasoning of the men in dark suits, as Putin once called them, and would deplore the actions of their leaders. But it's hard to say. If it's not already here, the fog of war may be about to descend on public opinion and the mainstream media. I'm just as much in the fog as the next guy, so take my views for what they: those of an ordinary citizen trying to make sense of what seem like extra-ordinary actions by his government.
I appreciate the summation, Dave, but it would have been a great time to point out that we HAD a nuclear deal and some ignorant person tore it up. I wonder who that was………
The 2015 JCPOA was, unusually, a technical masterpiece (Ernie Moniz is smarter than seems humanly possible) designed with one goal: to give Hillary enough time to build on it and replace it. The Orange Menace could only rebrand or break it, just like everything else. All of that technical excellence was voided by a lack of political imagination in 2016, a shortcoming that continues today.
Oh really, Iran has terrorized Israel for decades! And Israel has NOT terrorized Palestine for 75 years? Yes, Hamas attacked Israel and brutally killed 1200 ? Also taking hostages, so that makes it okay that Israel has EVENED THE SCORE by killing 45,000 (who knows the exact number, as who could find all the dead in the rubble Israel has created ). Peace could have been attained over a year ago; however the radical Israeli leaders do NOT WANT PEACE, THEY WANT IT ALL. And the Palestinians be damned. If Iran retaliates, then will you say our idiot leader made the right move? The “ emperor “ has already killed over a million of our countrymen, women and children with his “ oh, there are 15 cases of Covid and they will be well in 2 weeks “. Have you all forgotten the bodies in refrigeration trucks to be buried? And how many more of us will die of lives with poor health and hardship while he and his cronies enjoy their billions ?
Israel has millions of Netanyahu haters, people who want him in prison tomorrow, who nevertheless completely support what Israel is doing in Iran. Also I'm from a family of Marines that has not forgotten what they did to peacekeepers in Beirut in 1983. These are bad guys, not innocent Gazan children.
I noticed some nuance in what Todd Young said, maybe he understands that we really do not want in on this fight. Kinda too late, Toddy boy, but you are in this right track.
Smells like those three continue to comply in advance. What was the point of them swearing to protect the Constitution if they were not going to follow it's structure of the government?
Well, it looks like all three of the local members of Congress are willing to throw the US into another meaningless conflict in the middle east.
I agree, Chris, that this is meaningless in the sense that it will probably wind up not accomplishing whichever foreign policy goals that Trump, our local members of Congress, or military generals and venture capitalists like Dan Caine have in mind. Unfortunately, the so-called Blob probably does have some "meanings" in mind.
The explicit one is to degrade Iranian nuclear capacity (see p. 91 in ch. 5 of "Leave it to Bibi": https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/06_iran_strategy.pdf), but there may be others. For instance, it is well-known that the US wants to maintain hegemony in the region, which it has pursued in the past by fomenting dissident groups to weaken nationalistic agendas: we currently back a former leader of al-Qaeda in Syria, after overthrowing Assad, presumably because the Ba'athist regime was the only sovereign state, other than Iran, forming part of the so-called Axis of Resistance, which is often seen as resistance to the colonization of Palestine.
It is also well-known that we wish to maintain the petrodollar system, which is key to maintaining the dollar as global reserve currency. Iran is tied with Iraq and China as the fifth largest producer of oil on earth (the US is number one) and is the world's third largest producer of natural gas. Iran has also been pushing "de-dollarization," in part by selling more and more oil and gas in other currencies, notably the Chinese yuan or renminbi. China, which is the world's largest importer of oil and LNG (liquified natural gas), buys approximately 90% of Iran's oil and LNG through "teapots," which are small, independent refineries that are not officially state-owned but that allegedly pay for the oil and gas, shipped to them in a "dark fleet," in yuan, not in dollars. The US fears that other Persian Gulf countries will follow suit. The fear is well-founded as this is already happening: the United Arab Emirates has been selling LNG to China in yuan since May 2023 and Saudi Arabia has been in talks with China to do the same since 2022.
What is the petrodollar system? I'm no economist, but here's a stab. In August 1971 Richard Nixon ended the convertibility of the dollar to gold, before which the Bretton Woods system, in which the World Bank set the gold standard at $35/oz, prevailed. Since 1971, therefore, the dollar has been a freely floating fiat currency, which means that the value of the dollar in relation to other currencies is constantly fluctuating in the currency exchange market. In the 1970s, the US experienced a lot of inflation, and we were trying to find a way to stabilize the value of the dollar to bring down inflation. In 1973 an OPEC oil embargo caused oil prices to skyrocket and in 1974 inflation reached a record-breaking 11%. (The embargo, by the way, was a direct reaction against US support for Israel, which the OPEC countries saw as illegal occupation of Palestinian, Egyptian, and Syrian territory, and the leader of the embargo, King Faisal of Saudi Arabia, was assassinated for reasons that are still controversial.) Between 1973 and 1981 the price of oil increased fivefold.
Nixon and Kissinger sent Bill Simon to Saudi Arabia in order to neutralize this use of oil as an economic weapon. Simon, the Treasury Secretary and former Salomon Brothers investment bank bond trader, brokered a simple deal. The US would buy Saudi oil and provide military equipment in return for the Saudis putting billions of petrodollars back into US Treasuries to finance American spending. By eventually forcing the Persian Gulf oil monarchies to sell their oil in dollars, this in turn forced any country which wants to import oil (i.e. pretty much every country) to access dollars, thereby maintaining global demand for the dollar. This, along with Volcker's tightening of the Fed and a more aggressive monetary policy, was arguably a large factor in fixing the inflation crisis of the 1970s. From this point of view, at the heart of the privilege to print the global reserve currency is the petrodollar system.
There are also other goals we might have in attacking Iran, such as degrading, destroying, or collapsing Khomeini's regime, but maintaining hegemonic control over the region and protecting the petrodollar system (see all the talk about why the probably symbolic vote of the Iranian parliament to block the Straight of Hormuz is a major threat) are two possible goals.
Unfortunately, it is unclear to ordinary citizens like us what our government's goals really are. Tom Friedman at the NYT yesterday spoke of a "global struggle between the forces of inclusion and the forces of resistance." Pundits often write opinion pieces in such a way that morally justify at the time what on later reflection turn out to be immoral, or at least amoral, Thucydidean goals of realpolitik.
It's a shame that we live in an age of spectacle that makes it nigh impossible for ordinary citizens, who are good reasoners and have pretty accurate bullsh** detectors, to judge rationally the consequential decisions of their own governments. I bet that most Americans, given the full story, would be against the reasoning of the men in dark suits, as Putin once called them, and would deplore the actions of their leaders. But it's hard to say. If it's not already here, the fog of war may be about to descend on public opinion and the mainstream media. I'm just as much in the fog as the next guy, so take my views for what they: those of an ordinary citizen trying to make sense of what seem like extra-ordinary actions by his government.
I appreciate the summation, Dave, but it would have been a great time to point out that we HAD a nuclear deal and some ignorant person tore it up. I wonder who that was………
The 2015 JCPOA was, unusually, a technical masterpiece (Ernie Moniz is smarter than seems humanly possible) designed with one goal: to give Hillary enough time to build on it and replace it. The Orange Menace could only rebrand or break it, just like everything else. All of that technical excellence was voided by a lack of political imagination in 2016, a shortcoming that continues today.
Oh really, Iran has terrorized Israel for decades! And Israel has NOT terrorized Palestine for 75 years? Yes, Hamas attacked Israel and brutally killed 1200 ? Also taking hostages, so that makes it okay that Israel has EVENED THE SCORE by killing 45,000 (who knows the exact number, as who could find all the dead in the rubble Israel has created ). Peace could have been attained over a year ago; however the radical Israeli leaders do NOT WANT PEACE, THEY WANT IT ALL. And the Palestinians be damned. If Iran retaliates, then will you say our idiot leader made the right move? The “ emperor “ has already killed over a million of our countrymen, women and children with his “ oh, there are 15 cases of Covid and they will be well in 2 weeks “. Have you all forgotten the bodies in refrigeration trucks to be buried? And how many more of us will die of lives with poor health and hardship while he and his cronies enjoy their billions ?
Israel has millions of Netanyahu haters, people who want him in prison tomorrow, who nevertheless completely support what Israel is doing in Iran. Also I'm from a family of Marines that has not forgotten what they did to peacekeepers in Beirut in 1983. These are bad guys, not innocent Gazan children.
I noticed some nuance in what Todd Young said, maybe he understands that we really do not want in on this fight. Kinda too late, Toddy boy, but you are in this right track.
Pretty clear there is not going to be a flu vaccine this fall. That should raise his body count.
Smells like those three continue to comply in advance. What was the point of them swearing to protect the Constitution if they were not going to follow it's structure of the government?
So no need to ask Congress anymore? Just "trust" dear leader. Smells like Russia to me.
“I trust President Trump”. — Jim Banks. I DON’T And anyone who does IS A FOOL.
I'm disgusted by these officials, but that's nothing new.